"Fortunes were made in the first and second uranium booms and fortunes are now being made in this, the third uranium boom," organizer and host Arden Larsen said to his audience of nearly 300 attendees of the Uranium Expo 2005 in Grand Junction, Colorado on June 18. Larson was referring to the 1950s uranium boom that was fueled by the country’s need for uranium for national defense; and the 1970s uranium boom that fueled the 103 nuclear reactors which now provide nearly 20 percent of the electricity generated in the United States. The next uranium boom is the inevitable consequence of the failure of the power industry and government regulators to realistically address the need for new sources of energy during the last two decades.

The revived prospects for nuclear power stem from the volatile energy market and environmental concerns about global warming. Skyrocketing natural gas prices and the costs of containing carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants have forced electric utility companies and some environmentalists to embrace nuclear plants as the only realistic economic and environmental alternative to fossil fuels. New, safer reactor designs and waste storage solutions are being proposed for the next generation of nuclear plants.

Construction of new nuclear power plants in the United States has been out of fashion since the 1979 Three Mile Island accident, multi-billion dollar construction cost overruns, and long-term disposal and storage concerns over nuclear waste. During this same time, most of the other developed countries have turned to nuclear reactors in order to meet their growing energy demands. There are currently 441 nuclear power plants in operation in 30 countries, with at least 30 new power plants under construction and an additional 34 plants in the planning stages. In a novel twist that will give new meaning to Jane Fonda’s movie The China Syndrome, that country has announced plans to build 40 new nuclear reactors in the next 15 years. A uranium poor country, China has reportedly been attempting to secure long-term contracts in Australia and Canada. And Russia’s government has stated that it is going to limit their exports to conserve fuel for the 25 nuclear power plants they plan to build by 2020.

The uranium that is needed just to fuel the operating nuclear power plants is approximately 175 million pounds a year. World production of uranium is around 94 million pounds. That’s an 81 million pound shortfall. During the last two decades, this production shortfall has been filled by converting around 40 percent of Russia’s nuclear weapons arsenal to nuclear fuel, and by the sale of privatized government stockpiles. Production in the United States has fallen from 44 million pounds in 1980 to 2.2 million pounds, which is far less than the approximately 60 million pounds that this country’s nuclear power plants consume. Current and planned uranium mines cannot possibly supply the projected demand for all of the nuclear plants that will be in operation within the next twenty years. To state that the supply of uranium is inadequate is a massive understatement. Uranium is the most unbalanced commodity in the world.

This shortfall has pushed uranium prices from a low of $7 a pound to more than $29 a pound during the last four years. If present price trends continue, uranium will hit $45 a pound within a year and may reach $110 a pound within the next five years. If this seems improbable, consider this: in inflation adjusted terms, $110 is roughly equivalent to the old high of $43 a pound that uranium concentrate (called yellowcake because of its color) sold for in 1979. Given the fact that new nuclear power plants could cost between $1.14 and $1.18 billion, the acquisition costs of the uranium needed to fuel a reactor for its lifetime is almost insignificant.

Since most of those who felt the full impact of Charlie Steen’s Mi Vida Mine discovery in San Juan County’s Big Indian Mining District are no longer around, it might be instructive to recall the days when Moab was proud to be the "Uranium Capital of the World." The first uranium boom resulted from the urgent need for a secure domestic source of uranium for the production of atomic weapons during the Cold War arms race with the Soviet Union. Prior to the discovery of the large, high-grade uraninite ore deposits located in the Big Indian Mining District, the United States was forced to buy ninety percent of its radioactive materials from the Belgian Congo and Canada. The country’s need for uranium for national defense was so urgent that the Atomic Energy Commission (the AEC) decided it had to stimulate domestic prospecting and production through an incentive program of guaranteed prices, discovery bonuses, and development loans. Few government sponsored procurement programs in history have ever been as successful as the AEC’s was in the first uranium boom.

The first great quest for radioactive minerals forever changed the remote and beautifully desolate Colorado Plateau. Widespread publicity about my father’s prospecting saga and his fabulous discovery caught the attention of the public and he became the embodiment of every adventuresome man’s dream to strike it rich. In the ensuing rush for uranium riches, tens of thousands of amateur prospectors set out with Geiger counters and high hopes of hitting the uranium jackpot. The isolated and conservative Mormon towns of Moab, Monticello, Blanding, Hanksville, and Bluff were overwhelmed by the greatest rush for riches America ever experienced. The wide streets and few cafes and motels in these small towns were choked with a restless, questing humanity in search of the next Mi Vida Mine. And, the Big Indian District’s large uranium ore bodies attracted well-established mining companies that had previously been uninterested in exploring for uranium. Hundreds of geologists, mining engineers, and surveyors found employment and added a professional hand to the rank amateurs. Soon, more uranium ore bodies were discovered in New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, and Washington.

Many individuals actually made real fortunes from uranium. More millionaires were made on the Lisbon Valley Anticline than any other uranium mining area in America. Big deals were almost commonplace in the 1950s. New York financier Floyd Odlum spent $60 million acquiring uranium properties for companies that he eventually merged into Atlas Corporation. That figure includes the $9 million he overpaid Vernon Pick for the mine Odlum called the Hidden Splendor before he realized it wasn’t worth a third of that amount. (Everyone always called it the Hidden Blunder Mine.) The three owners of the Happy Jack Mine in the White Canyon District divided $6 million for their property. Dozens of other mine owners and operators made more money than they ever saw again in the first uranium boom. Thousands of people invested in hundreds of penny uranium stock promotions; and plenty of small fortunes were made by people on both sides of these speculative deals when claims changed hands.

Between 1948 and 1971, the AEC purchased nearly 350 million pounds of uranium concentrate at a cost of almost $3 billion from more than 30 uranium mills operated under AEC contracts. The Uranium Reduction Company / Atlas Mill in Moab accounted for more than 40 million pounds of yellowcake costing the government $325 million. A similar amount of uranium concentrate purchased at the projected price of $110 a pound would generate $4.4 billion. Compare that figure to the amount of money Moab’s motels and restaurants rake in during the tourist season and it’s easy to see why some old timers are looking forward to the good old days.

The second uranium boom lacked the excitement and public mania of the 1950s boom, but fortunes were made and nearly as many millions of pounds of uranium concentrates were sold to public utilities for use in nuclear power plants as previously were used in nuclear weapons. Rio Algom’s Lisbon Valley Mine and Mill were brought into production in 1972 with a contract for sale to a power company. The three owners of the claims that Rio Algom leased made millions from their property. Prices increased from $6 per pound in 1971 to over $43 per pound by 1973. However, few of the nation’s uranium producers were able to take advantage of these high prices because they had locked into long-term contracts at much lower prices. Atlas Minerals was caught in a price vise when its long-term contract with a utility company to provide yellowcake at $11 per pound collided with its diminished ore reserves and increased production costs. Only the relatively late discovery of the high-grade Velvet ore body in lower Lisbon Valley enabled Atlas to fulfill its contract. The Velvet ore deposit was discovered by several uranium savvy locals exploring under a finder’s fee agreement paying $3 for every pound produced. They made millions. That agreement did not leave room for much profit, but it kept the company alive. Atlas managed to stave off its financial collapse by selling some of its production for higher spot uranium prices during its last decade as the mainstay of southeastern Utah’s uranium industry.

The 1970s dramatic price increases and projected shortfalls in uranium production prompted Energy Fuels to construct the $30 million White Mesa Mill near Blanding and the utility-owned Plateau Resources to invest more than $20 million in its Ticaboo Mine and Mill complex in Garfield County. Both of these mills were completed in 1980- just in time to watch the bottom fall out of the uranium mining game. These companies’ assets have changed hands, and the new owners of these mills and mines are looking forward to finally exploiting their multi-million pound ore reserves. They have what every company wants – pounds in the ground.

Since that last boom, thousands of new residents have moved to southeastern Utah. Some have come to view uranium prospecting and mining as a romantic last chance for the independent prospector. Others are certain that greed-stricken miners should be kept from despoiling the environment by the addition of millions of acres of Wilderness Areas. The Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance’s last words on the subject stated "the continued production of uranium in Utah, and even in the United States as a whole is in doubt." Their assessment that "reduced domestic demand for nuclear power combined with less costly foreign sources of uranium indicate that future production of this commodity from Utah mines is questionable" might need revision. Certainly, opponents of more Wilderness Areas will raise the issue of the new economic vitality of uranium mining when prices soar past $45 a pound. The path ahead looks strewn with contentious conflict. Uranium mining will undoubtedly become a major issue in the debate over more Wilderness Withdrawals as the old extractive mining industry gets its third wind. This will be happening at the same time that environmentalists and wilderness preservationists are dealing with a resurgent oil and gas industry and their supporters in Washington. "Energy Independence" advocates have acquired another ally in the battle over access to Public Lands from an industry that seemed consigned to the uneconomic wastebasket.

It does not take a great deal of perspicacity to imagine uranium mining advocates raising the specter of global warming from the accumulation of greenhouse gases threatening the planet with intolerable and lethal heat waves and rising sea levels that will drown every coastal city in the world. Just think how many signatures low-paid students could obtain from inebriated Mardi Gras celebrants when they are asked to sign pro-nuclear petitions to save New Orleans from its inevitable immersion by melting ice caps! Nuclear energy’s opponents will be hard-pressed to convince senators and congressmen that uranium mining should be curtailed when their Georgetown condos are threatened with rising floodwaters as the Potomac River backs up and overflows its banks. Citizens from Bangor, Maine to Brownsville, Texas and from Seattle, Washington to San Diego, California will join together to demand that nuclear power plants are rushed into operation as soon as possible. Oh! The Humanity! Well, maybe things won’t have to get quite that bad before nuclear power is embraced as the only energy source that can be applied in time to offset the environmental threat from fossil-fueled power sources.

How will the third uranium boom really affect Moab and the other small towns of southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado? Despite being one of the most thoroughly explored areas in the country, hope will always overcome knowledge when it comes to prospecting. Thousands of uranium claims have already been filed with the County Recorders’ Offices in Grand and San Juan Counties. Some of these claims are being staked by old- time uranium mining families who haven’t made a dime off uranium in twenty years. The children and grandchildren of some prominent 1950s mining clans are busy staking claims in areas where their fathers and grandfathers always believed more drilling was needed or some ore was left in the ground. Anyone interested in the subject has heard a story or two about some area where a million pounds of uranium or a hundred thousand tons of ore got overlooked. Stories are circulating about drill holes that hit uranium, but were never followed up with more confirmation drilling. Worked out radioactive holes in the ground where decades of mining couldn’t have left a thousand tons of ore are being staked over for the third time by people who should know better or don’t care as long as they can turn the claims for a quick buck. There are still a few places where uranium-bearing channels have been projected to be found at greater depths along easily followed trends. Some of these targets were written about in geologic literature that has been available for years. All of these known trends are probably covered with claim posts by now.

Casual observers probably believe that most of the uranium in the area has already been discovered and mined. Although millions of feet of exploration drilling were completed in the two previous booms, few ore deposits were left in place awaiting this third boom. The real future for uranium in this area lies at depth. The economics of the uranium business has to be taken into account. In the 1950s, drilling deeper than 800 feet was very uncommon, except along the known ore trend in the Big Indian District. And again, except in the Big Indian District, where deep drilling discovered several significant ore deposits , few drill holes were completed to depths of more than 1000 feet, even in the 1970s. As uranium prices continue to rise, exploration drilling will begin to search for the uranium many experts believe exists at depths no company considered during the last two booms. Hundreds of millions of pounds of uranium will probably be found during this third boom.

So, will Moab ever be the uranium boomtown it was during the 1950s, or the company town it was when Atlas owned the mill on the Colorado River that nobody seems to love anymore? Probably not. Moab is never going to be invaded by tens of thousands of uranium fortune seekers again. Thousands of them have already scoured the outcrops of the ore bearing formations in every direction with Geiger counters. That simple prospecting technique’s time expired in the 1950s. The AEC no longer exists, and the government isn’t encouraging tenderfeet to help keep the Communists behind the Iron Curtain. The years when an enthusiastic amateur could make a fortune in uranium were over by the late Fifties. By the 1960s, the uranium exploration and mining game belonged to about a dozen companies, most of which no longer exist. If there is going to be a collision between Moab’s new residents and the new generation of uranium seekers, it is probably going to be fought over access to the Public Lands.

Brace yourself Moab, the third uranium boom on the Colorado Plateau is on the way.